- Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index has fallen to its lowest level in four years, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.
- The reading matches levels last seen in November 2022, shortly after the FTX collapse, when Bitcoin reached its cycle bottom.
- The market is weighing this signal alongside a $6.3 billion hack on Binance, with Bitcoin trading near $77,000 at the time of the report.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said in an X post on a Friday that the Coinbase Premium has dropped to a four-year low. The development comes as crypto markets prepare for further declines following a $6.3 billion hack on the Binance exchange. Ju argued that sentiment has become negative enough that it could eventually support a recovery.
What Happened
Ju noted that the Coinbase Premium last sat at this level in November 2022, right after the FTX collapse, which was the period when Bitcoin bottomed. In his post, he wrote: “Coinbase Premium hit a 4-year low. The last time it was this low was in Nov 2022, right after the FTX collapse, when BTC bottomed. Market sentiment is bearish enough to be bullish, imo.” He shared a CryptoQuant chart with the message.
The Coinbase Premium Index tracks the percentage price difference between Bitcoin traded against the USD pair on Coinbase and the USDT pair on Binance. Because it compares a U.S.-focused venue with a global one, it is often used as a rough gauge of whether buying or selling pressure is stronger in the American market relative to other platforms.
When the index sits at market bottoms, it indicates that Bitcoin is priced lower on Coinbase than on Binance. Ju suggested that pairing the index with other on-chain data, such as exchange flows and fund volume, could help identify buy-the-dip conditions.
At the time of the report, Bitcoin had fallen more than 5% to around $77,000 amid concern over the $6.3 billion Binance hack. Over the preceding 24 hours, its low was $76,443 and its high was $81,840.
Why It Matters
A low Coinbase Premium reading can make Bitcoin investors more cautious, particularly when overall sentiment is deteriorating. Ju’s comment reframes that weakness as a possible contrarian signal, since extreme pessimism has historically appeared near market lows. However, the indicator on its own does not confirm a bottom, and analysts typically look for confirmation from other data before drawing conclusions.
The Binance hack adds a separate layer of uncertainty. The exchange has said it will cover the full $6.3 billion from its SAFU Fund and company funds. According to the report, Binance has already reserved more than $6.34 billion of company funds for the incident, and $5 billion of that amount is held in the same token assets that were affected. Those reserves may help limit the damage to users, but the sell-off suggests traders are still reassessing counterparty risk on major platforms.
Market Context
The comparison with November 2022 is central to Ju’s argument. That month, the collapse of the FTX exchange rattled confidence across the industry, and Bitcoin reached a cycle bottom in the range of roughly $15,500 to $16,000 before recovering. Ju’s point is that a similar drop in the Coinbase Premium then coincided with a turning point, although past patterns do not guarantee the same outcome.
The current situation follows a bear market, and the report describes the market as bracing for a deeper decline. Bitcoin’s price has held near the $77,000 level despite the sharp intraday move, which suggests some support, though the report notes that traders remain cautious. Exchange-specific events such as the Binance hack tend to affect not only the platform involved but also broader confidence in centralized trading venues.
What to Watch Next
Readers should monitor several factors in the coming period:
- Binance withdrawals: The report says traders are waiting for withdrawals to reopen before taking a firmer position, so the resumption of normal activity on the exchange is a key checkpoint.
- Coinbase Premium trends: Whether the index stays at its four-year low or begins to recover will show whether U.S. buying pressure is returning.
- On-chain confirmation: Exchange flows and fund volume, which Ju suggested as complementary indicators, may show whether the sentiment shift is supported by actual behavior.
- Price levels: Bitcoin’s behavior around the $76,443 low and the $81,840 high from the latest 24-hour window may signal whether upside momentum develops.
Market participants should treat these indicators as part of a broader picture rather than as standalone signals, and they should verify updates from Binance and other sources as the situation develops.
Source: original report
