- President Donald Trump’s October 16 order waives new Russia-linked duties before the October 18 date that would have triggered them.
- The proposed duties were set at 500% on Russian goods and 100% on goods from two country groups tied to Russian energy purchases and sanctions evasion.
- The waivers have no fixed expiry, so future decisions remain a policy trigger that crypto investors may track for inflation and financing-cost effects.
President Donald Trump has waived a set of new tariffs linked to Russia through an order signed on October 16, preventing them from applying as October 18 approaches. That date had been a condition for targeting certain countries over new purchases of Russian energy. The decision removes one potential source of inflation and financing-cost pressure that analysts had linked to the bitcoin market.
What Happened
The order puts into effect the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. Under the legislation, the additional duties would reach 500% on Russian goods. They would also apply at 100% to goods from two separate country groups. The first group consists of the five largest Russian oil and gas importers that knowingly make new purchases on or after October 18. The second consists of the five leading facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion. The order includes exceptions, and it is these waivers that keep the duties from taking effect.
The waivers do not carry a set end date. They remain in force until the president or the secretary of state decides that further action is appropriate. In making that decision, either official would consult the Treasury secretary and the US trade representative as needed. The order does not name any countries within the two groups. Instead, it directs the US trade representative and other officials to monitor Russian energy purchases and efforts to facilitate sanctions evasion. The monitoring includes circumstances that could justify changing the waivers.
Earlier restrictions remain in place within the order’s scope. The order preserves measures issued under executive orders addressing the Russian harmful-foreign-activities emergency, as those measures stood immediately before the act was enacted. This includes measures against persons who were already sanctioned under those orders.
Why It Matters
For bitcoin and the wider crypto market, the significance of the order lies less in direct trade effects than in the broader macroeconomic environment. Keeping the additional duties on hold could limit a tariff-driven and energy-driven inflation shock. That, in turn, could reduce the likelihood of tighter financial conditions, which tend to weigh on speculative assets.
The link is visible in recent official commentary. On October 8, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller cited elevated energy costs and threatened new tariffs as among the persistent inflation pressures he was watching. He also said he anticipated further interest-rate increases if incoming data continued as he expected. These were his personal views, and they were delivered eight days before the waiver was issued. The waiver therefore changes one of the risks that could feed into the policy path he described, although it does not remove the broader inflation picture.
Research also points to a channel between US monetary policy and crypto markets. BIS Working Paper 1219, published in October 2024, found that US monetary-policy tightening weakened crypto prices and reduced stablecoin market capitalization, while assets in prime money market funds rose. The findings support the general view that US policy can affect crypto demand and liquidity through financial conditions.
Market Context
CryptoSlate’s September 19 report described October 18 as an implementation test and identified the possibility of waivers as a potential limit on the economic shock. The administration has now used that authority, which shifts attention from the threatened duties to how the waivers are managed going forward.
The episode illustrates how geopolitical trade measures can reach crypto markets indirectly. Tariffs and energy sanctions do not target digital assets, yet they can influence inflation expectations, central bank guidance and the cost of borrowing. Those variables, in turn, affect investor appetite for risk assets, including bitcoin. Because the connection runs through macroeconomic channels rather than crypto-specific rules, changes in trade policy often appear in market pricing only after their effects on rates or liquidity become clearer.
What to Watch Next
Readers should follow several developments. The first is any change to the waivers. Because the order has no fixed expiry, a decision by the president or the secretary of state could reinstate the duties or modify their scope at any time. The second is the work of the US trade representative and other officials in monitoring Russian energy purchases and sanctions-evasion activity. Their findings could show whether conditions have shifted in ways that warrant action.
The third area is whether renewed trade pressure reaches energy prices, inflation expectations or financing conditions. Statements from Federal Reserve officials, including future remarks similar to Governor Waller’s, may offer clues about how policymakers are weighing these factors. Market participants will likely also watch the path of US interest rates and the dollar, since those variables have historically shaped crypto flows.
Source: original report