- Bitquery data shows Binance-linked wallets sent $23.1 billion in USDT to Tether in 2026 through October 22, while receiving $15.6 billion in return.
- Binance’s tracked Ethereum stablecoin holdings fell from $43.9 billion in April to $38.8 billion on October 22, well below a record $45.6 billion reached in November 2025.
- Analysts caution that transfers between networks do not prove that customer capital has left the crypto market.
A blockchain analytics investigation indicates that stablecoin flows between Binance and Tether have swung sharply in 2026, with the net movement strongly favoring the issuer. The findings raise questions about how much liquidity remains on the world’s largest crypto exchange while Bitcoin struggles to regain momentum around $80,000.
What Happened
The October 22 investigation by Bitquery examined wallets linked to Binance. It found that these addresses transferred $23.1 billion in USDT to Tether during 2026, while receiving $15.6 billion back. The result is a net imbalance of $7.5 billion flowing toward the issuer. For comparison, the same data shows a net inflow of $6.4 billion across the whole of 2025. The underlying reporting describes the overall reversal as nearly $14 billion.
Binance’s holdings have also declined. Its identified Ethereum wallets reached a record $45.6 billion in November 2025, more than triple their October 2024 balance. Stablecoin holdings then slipped to $39.5 billion by July 2026 and, in October, fell to their lowest level since September 2025. The tracked Ethereum stablecoin figure dropped from $43.9 billion in April to $38.8 billion on October 22.
The decline was most visible in Binance’s largest cold wallet, which held about $28 billion in USDT at its peak and held $16 billion on October 22. Two other cold wallets, however, gained a combined $6.2 billion over the same period. Bitquery excluded transfers between Binance-controlled addresses when calculating the exchange’s aggregate position, so the broader reduction reflects movement beyond internal shuffling.
Transfers with Tether show a similar pattern. During all of 2025, Binance sent $16.6 billion in USDT to Tether’s treasury. Transfers in the first ten months of 2026 have already surpassed that full-year total. Most of this year’s outgoing USDT moved on Ethereum, accounting for $19.6 billion, while the incoming tokens arrived mainly on Tron, totaling $13.6 billion.
Why It Matters
Stablecoins supply much of the dollar-denominated buying power used in cryptocurrency trading. When that supply on exchanges shrinks, traders have fewer readily available funds to deploy into assets such as Bitcoin. For that reason, a sustained decline in Binance’s stablecoin balances is closely watched by market participants.
The report, however, makes a careful distinction that matters for interpretation. Returning USDT to Tether does not necessarily mean the tokens were redeemed for dollars. Tether’s issuance process allows an exchange to return tokens on one network and receive equivalent tokens on another without reducing total supply. The issuer can also hold returned tokens in its treasury before reissuing or destroying them. As a result, the transfers show a significant shift toward Tether, but they do not independently establish how much USDT was actually withdrawn from circulation.
The two measures also capture different things. Binance’s wallet balances track USDT and USDC held in identified Ethereum addresses, while the Tether transfer data covers USDT moving between the exchange and its issuer across Ethereum and Tron. Neither measure proves that customer capital has permanently exited the market.
Market Context
The recent trend follows a period of substantial accumulation. Binance built up significant stablecoin holdings through 2025, reaching its record in November of that year. The subsequent unwinding has been gradual, spread over several months rather than concentrated in a single withdrawal event. That pattern suggests a slow change in how the exchange manages its reserves, rather than an abrupt exit of funds.
Bitcoin’s performance near $80,000 adds context. Stablecoin balances on exchanges are often viewed as a leading indicator of potential buying demand, so a falling balance during a period of weak price momentum draws attention. Whether stablecoin liquidity is a cause or a reflection of price action remains an open question that the available data does not resolve.
What to Watch Next
Readers following this story should monitor several indicators in the coming weeks:
- Binance’s stablecoin balances: Continued declines in tracked Ethereum holdings would reinforce the case that exchange-level purchasing power is weakening.
- Circulating USDT supply: A sustained contraction in total supply would suggest that returned tokens are being redeemed rather than reissued on another network.
- Deposits and new issuance: A recovery in exchange deposits or fresh stablecoin issuance would indicate that liquidity is returning to the market.
- Network breakdown of transfers: Changes in the split between Ethereum and Tron activity could clarify how much of the flow reflects cross-chain movement.
- Bitcoin’s price response: Whether Bitcoin can hold and build on levels near $80,000 will help show whether buying demand is keeping pace with the stablecoin trends.
Until redemption data is separated from network transfers, the figures point to a meaningful shift in Binance’s stablecoin activity without confirming the scale of capital leaving the market.
Source: original report