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India’s $5 Trillion Crypto Volume vs. Policy Silence: Why Budget 2026 is a ‘Make or Break’ Moment

News RoomBy News RoomJanuary 22, 2026No Comments3 Mins Read
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India’s Crypto Conundrum: Navigating the Regulatory Landscape

The Indian cryptocurrency sphere is at a pivotal crossroads, where the implications of regulatory decisions extend well beyond mere tax revenues. As Pankaj Balani, CEO and Co-Founder of Delta Exchange, points out, crypto platforms operating outside the Indian jurisdiction lead to a weakening of oversight, limited consumer grievance redressal, and economic values generated by Indian users flowing overseas. This trend not only stifles potential job creation within the country but also prevents the economic value generated by its tech-savvy population from being harnessed domestically.

The Balance of Digital Infrastructure and Crypto Confidence

India is recognized for its robust digital payment infrastructure, often termed one of the best in the world. However, this confidence does not seem to extend into the realm of cryptocurrency. The existing approach, which emphasizes compliance and regulation, reflects a discomfort with decentralized ownership. As Nischal Shetty, Founder of WazirX, articulates, the current framework needs to be reconsidered to adapt to the rapid maturation of Web3. The real challenge lies in re-evaluating the mindset of regulators to embrace citizen-owned digital assets—an essential step for India to fully capitalize on its digital infrastructure.

Clarity of Intent: A Missing Link in Regulation

India is not lacking in regulation concerning cryptocurrencies; however, what remains elusive is the direction such regulations are intended to serve. The absence of a clear policy intent may lead to a defensive regulatory stance rather than a developmental one, critical for a burgeoning industry like crypto. Coinbase’s recent return to India, following a hiatus due to UPI-related restrictions, demonstrates that global players still identify long-term opportunities in the Indian market. Raj Karkara, COO of ZebPay, emphasizes the need for a consistent framework that fosters trust among investors and institutions, thereby enabling responsible business operations.

The Budget 2026 Prospects: A Call for Concrete Policies

As India moves closer to its 2026 budget, the crypto community’s expectations are notably modest yet significant. Stakeholders are clamoring for a more coherent regulatory framework, clearly defined permissible activities, and a favorable tax structure that discourages offshore transactions. As Shetty notes, establishing a constructive policy could potentially contribute to India’s ambitious goal of becoming a $5 trillion economy. Even minor initiatives, such as outlining the contours of a Crypto Bill or revisiting transaction-related frictions, would reflect a proactive stance toward adapting to evolving realities in the cryptocurrency sphere.

The Need for Regulatory Adaptation amid Rapid Developments

The Indian government’s approach to digital money isn’t solely limited to cryptocurrencies. Ongoing pilots for a digital rupee, along with plans for a Regulated Asset-backed Stablecoin (ARC) issued by the private sector, showcase an evolving regulatory landscape. The ARC will operate on blockchain rails while maintaining settlement anchored to the Reserve Bank of India, exemplifying a balanced approach. As India propels towards becoming the third-largest economy, adapting to and integrating crypto innovations becomes increasingly critical, especially given the rapid evolution of the global crypto market.

Conclusion: Seizing the Crypto Opportunity

With an estimated 100 million users and a staggering $5 trillion in offshore crypto volume, India is undeniably a significant player in the crypto economy. However, the nation’s current hesitation to establish a robust regulatory framework poses the risk of missing valuable opportunities in this innovative sector. Whether India chooses to lead in shaping the future of cryptocurrency or merely adapt to regulations formed elsewhere will ultimately determine its role in the global financial landscape. The clock is ticking, and India must decide whether to embrace its digital potential or remain anchored in indecision.

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