XRP Outlook for 2026: Understanding Regulatory Wins and Market Sentiment
As 2026 unfolds, Ripple (XRP) has started on a positive note by obtaining two critical regulatory licenses and forming a strategic partnership with Aviva Investors. These advancements are pivotal, aiming to facilitate the XRP Ledger’s (XRPL) transition towards mainstream decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. By enabling the tokenization of Aviva’s traditional funds, Ripple is taking significant steps to enhance the usability of its blockchain technology in traditional finance.
Despite these promising developments, the market sentiment surrounding XRP remains apprehensive. Recent analyses indicate a bearish outlook, even as the underlying fundamentals of XRPL show solid performance. According to AMBCrypto, both the stablecoin market capitalization and real-world asset (RWA) values have reached all-time highs, driven by substantial capital influx into the ecosystem. Yet, XRP’s price trajectory appears to be diverging from this robust fundamental backdrop, raising questions about the sustainability of bullish predictions.
Renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently highlighted the ongoing downtrend for XRP, asserting that the price may target lows of $0.80. This assessment is based on a long-term ascending channel chart that suggests further price declines could be on the horizon. The volatility of XRP, especially given the backdrop of its regulatory victories and partnerships, underscores the market’s complex dynamics that go beyond mere technical analysis and fundamental performance.
The options market also reflects this bearish sentiment, according to Glassnode data. While September saw a put/call ratio of just 0.17, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders, the landscape has dramatically shifted in recent months. As of February 2026, the put/call ratio climbed to 0.76, signifying a substantial increase in bearish bets. Historically, such metrics often serve as contrarian signals, potentially marking market bottoms, adding a layer of complexity to market predictions for XRP.
Further supporting this bearish outlook is the negative funding rate observed over the last two weeks. Coupled with steadily declining open interest, these indicators point to a prevailing bearish sentiment in the futures market. Despite positive spot ETF flows observed in February, the macroeconomic environment remains bleak for the crypto sector. This indicates that XRP holders may need to brace for additional challenges, with the $0.80 price target viewed as a plausible scenario in the coming months.
Nevertheless, traders should tread cautiously. Large clusters of short liquidations loom overhead, presenting opportunities for potential price surges. Key resistance areas, particularly between $1.80-$2.0 and $2.44-$2.62, may undergo retests before any subsequent bearish trends re-emerge. Overall, while the long-term outlook for XRP suggests a possible drop to $0.80, immediate movements may oscillate due to prevailing market sentiment, trader behavior, and broader economic conditions.
In conclusion, XRP’s current trajectory is a study in contrasts: marked regulatory achievements juxtaposed with a bearish market sentiment, creating an uncertain but intriguing landscape for traders and investors alike as 2026 progresses.
